The Trump team believes that tariffs will bring in trillions of dollars to close the growing U.S. debt and deficits, induce a manufacturing renaissance at home by creating millions of new jobs and not increase inflation. File Photo by Terry Schmitt/UPI | License Photo
Whether by accident in peacetime or in the heat of war, no warship commanding officer wants to hear the alarm “torpedoes in the water!” The result can be catastrophic.
The U.S. public needs to hear a similar alarm. Several political torpedoes are in the water. Can any be averted or stopped before hitting the ship of state?
The first torpedo is the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. The second is the prospect of a government shutdown on Oct. 1 if Congress is incapable of passing a budget. The combination will be super-explosive.
Trump has reached the understanding, whether by instinct or experience, that the constitutional system of three equal branches of government has not worked and does not work any longer. Checks and balances in a grotesquely partisan environment mandate gridlock or worse. In Trump’s view, only a strong executive able to grasp as much power and influence as possible will reverse this chronic failure to govern.
As a result, Trump is surely the most powerful president in our lifetimes and arguably since Lincoln. He is testing the bounds of the Constitution. Learning from his first term, Trump has a 6-3 majority in the Supreme Court. While he has tiny congressional majorities, he has so intimidated the Republican Party that it no longer exists and is entirely subservient to his wishes and whims.
Trump has brilliantly trapped the Democratic Party in moving to the far left. In virtually every situation in which the public is 80-20 for or against, Democrats take the minority side from transgender athletes in sports to border closings. Hence, is there any organized opposition? Tariffs are the quintessential example.
Trump is using tariffs to reset the trade and economic balances to America’s advantage. Not only are these good negotiating tools, but the Trump team also believes that tariffs will bring in trillions of dollars to close the growing U.S. debt and deficits, induce a manufacturing renaissance at home by creating millions of new jobs and not increase inflation. That history and practice will prove him wrong makes no difference.
To justify bypassing the Constitution in which only Congress can regulate commerce and impose tariffs, Team Trump claims that the 1977 International Economic Emergency Act gives him this authority. In this argument, the national security crisis is the U.S. debt that will sink the ship of state if left on the current course.
So far, the courts have rejected Trump’s argument on correct constitutional grounds. However, the Supreme Court may find that in foreign policy, the president deserves leeway and the benefit of the doubt granting him the legal authority in essence to bypass the Constitution.
But while logic and common sense are too powerful to be dismissed, Trump still could carry the day. Consider some basic realities about tariffs and the real cause of the debt problem. In this year’s budget, if it passes, spending will be $2 trillion more than revenues.
If tariffs could raise $1 trillion a year, which even the administration says is too large an estimate, the national debt will grow in 10 years to nearly $50 trillion from $37 trillion. The cause is uncontrolled spending growth in every item from Social Security, health care and defense to interest payments. These must be cut. Tariffs cannot do that.
Regardless of the Supreme Court decision, suppose Congress defaults and the government shuts down. Trump can reasonably argue that this is a real national emergency, even if crucial parts of the government remain open that will preserve his tariff authority irrespective of the court. And if Trump were really clever, he would make this a double whammy by accusing the Democrats or maneuvering the, into taking the fall for the shutdown.
Armed with this crisis, greater presidential power and authority would follow. And if Trump’s judgment were proven correct, and this worked, what might be the next target?
Of the 27 constitutional amendments, two have been profoundly foolish and dangerous. The 18th Amendment’s prohibition of alcohol made law-breaking acceptable by private citizens and a bonanza for criminals. The 22nd was passed to prevent a future FDR from serving more than two terms. But it makes no sense for a successful and popular president to be denied another term.
Tariffs and the prospect of a government shutdown are political torpedoes in the water. If they run hot, straight and true, make no mistake. In that case, the 22nd Amendment will be a major target no matter how tough it may be to sink.
Harlan Ullman is UPI’s Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist, senior adviser at Washington’s Atlantic Council, chairman of a private company and principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. His next book, co-written with Field Marshal The Lord David Richards, former U.K. chief of defense and due out next year, is Who Thinks Best Wins: Preventing Strategic Catastrophe. The writer can be reached on X @harlankullman.
