The much-hyped Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), headed by Elon Musk (pictured) and Vivek Ramaswamy, has pledged to identify trillions of dollars of cost cuts from the federal budget — but is it possible? Pool Photo by Allison Robbert/UPI | License Photo
The much-hyped Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), headed by the richest man on earth, Elon Musk, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, has pledged to identify trillions of dollars of cost cuts and reductions. The original promise to cut $2 trillion from the $6.7 trillion federal budget, at face value, is absurd. Unless spread out over decades, that amount of reductions would require massive cuts across all budget line items, especially social security and healthcare. The latter two are considered the “third rails” of politics.
President-elect Donald Trump’s commitment to extending tax cuts and potentially lowering corporate rates to 15% will lead to greater deficits. Trump argues that tariffs will make America rich. Given their history, however, tariffs invariably harm economies, meaning growth is contained. This too will exacerbate the deficits. Advertisement
A further villain is the uncontrolled real annual cost growth of 5-7% on virtually every item or service used by the public. This phenomenon is particularly visible in grocery stores and the huge increases in cost of virtually every product. Government is equally affected, due to the irrationality of the budget approval process, overregulation, and enhanced, new technologies in terms of product improvements. Advertisement
One way out of this apparent paradox is to include cost avoidances as part of the savings, meaning avoiding costs would be as important as cost cuts. This, however, would be false measures. For example, long-term programs, particularly in defense but also in other line items, could be canceled. Yet, the unintended consequences might be devastating.
The United States has started to invest many hundreds of billions of dollars in the modernization of its strategic nuclear forces. The B-21 Raider stealth bomber, the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and the Columbia-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) are all suffering from delays in production and massive cost overruns. Without understanding the context of deterrence, it would be easy and simple to delay and defer modernization. This could be scored as saving, actually deferring or avoiding many billions.
This overly simplistic logic would simply lead to even greater costs of these programs, assuming modernization remains a priority. Such simplicity also ignores other realities. The United States has two companies that build nuclear submarines: General Dynamics and Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), once known as Newport News Shipyards. Currently, contracts for 17 nuclear submarines must be negotiated and signed. Due to COVID-19 and the negative impact on the supply chain, cost overruns amount to about $50 billion needed to build these ships without bankrupting the yards. Advertisement
Beyond deferrals to avoid costs and thus achieve “savings,” regulations will be a target for DOGE. Federal regulations and the associated directives have added to acquisition inefficiencies and costs. This column has advocated streamlining and codifying these rules. However, this must be done with care. The unintended consequences of excessively cutting regulations can all but guarantee a lack of competent oversight.
Attention to so-called obvious examples of wasteful spending, such as “drag shows in Ecuador” and studying “music therapy for social anxiety,” may have solid arguments. To the public, however, these make no sense. The reality is the savings are trivial. Even if the savings totaled $1 billion dollars, that is 1/1000 of a trillion dollars and would have no meaningful impact.
The most obvious and analytical approach is to begin evaluating and assessing the legal requirements for each and every agency and office of government to determine relevancy. While the Department of Education might be closed to make savings, many of the financial responsibilities would have to be reassigned. That would not save much money.
The other responsibility of DOGE is to improve efficiency. Congress must be part of this evaluation, as annual budgeting and continuing resolutions are highly inefficient. In addition, DOGE must not preclude reviewing whether the Department of Homeland Security and the Director of National Security are working and effective. Placing the Secret Service under Homeland Security may have ultimately led to the failures to protect the president and other senior officials. Advertisement
If DOGE is wielded like an axe or broadsword, disruption is assured and the results are doubtful. But if applied like a scalpel, it may work. Still, DOGE seems far more like a panacea and not a real possibility. We will see.
Harlan Ullman is UPI’s Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist, a senior advisor at Washington’s Atlantic Council, the prime author of “shock and awe” and author of “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large.” Follow him @harlankullman. The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.
