President Donald Trump (R) and Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi show signed documents during a summit on Gaza in Sharm el-Sheikh on Monday. Stabilizing Gaza remains an issue. Photo by Egyptian Presidency/UPI | License Photo
For the moment, peace may be breaking out in Gaza. One must give great credit to President Donald Trump and other key world leaders for this extraordinary first step.
But for real peace to take hold, massive challenges and dangers must be overcome. While attention is focused on that region, the rest of the world is far from peaceful.
Ukraine is the most obvious tinderbox that could explode. An economic spat between Trump and China may be resolved. But what if it is not?
Meanwhile, the United States is building up its forces in the Caribbean as if this were the 1990s with Contras and a short intervention to overthrow and arrest Manuel Noriega. Is Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro next on the hit list?
While Africa was once called the dark continent, today it should be called the deadly continent. Militant Islamist groups have caused about 150,000 deaths over the last decade. More than 330,000 battle-related deaths over the past three years were reported. And the Tigray War in Ethiopia claimed hundreds of thousands dead, with one estimate of more than 500,000 due to conflict, violence, famine and disease.
As many predicted, Trump has basically passed off Ukraine to Europe. The United States will sell weapons to Europe that can be transferred to Ukraine. The critical issue now is whether the Tomahawk cruise missile, with a nominal 1,500-mile range and 1,000-pound payload, will be sent to Ukraine or used as a bargaining chip to engage Vladimir Putin in negotiations.
In response, Russia has resumed raising the nuclear specter, which is dangerous and frankly stupid.
Would one weapon have the impact to bring about a negotiation? It is an interesting question, and the only example is the two nuclear weapons dropped on Japan in August 1945?
Despite the extraordinary courage and perseverance of the Ukrainian people, barring a military miracle or perhaps enough Tomahawks to threaten Russia’s energy sector, it would seem that size and weight will matter most. However, the war in Ukraine is far from settled and could explode into an even greater crisis, depending on how things evolve.
It would appear that the Trump tariff war with China may have receded. It is unfortunate that while Trump believes he has a good relationship with President Xi Jinping, tariffs may trump that. With the U.S. government shut down and the Supreme Court soon to rule on the constitutionality of the president’s tariff authorities, the last thing needed is a trade war between the largest and second-largest economies.
Meanwhile, the administration is trying to paint a bulls-eye on Venezuela’s Maduro. Perhaps it is because his arch enemy, Maria Corina Machado, won the Nobel Peace Prize that Trump coveted.
Next year will tell, as the committee’s decision was made before the Gaza breakthrough. Unlike the award to President Barack Obama based on speculation, the team in Norway may have needed a more specific reason.
No matter. The United States is building up its military power, largely naval in southern waters, placing a great strain on forces elsewhere to maintain the ongoing deployment schedule without breaking the force.
In Africa, rich in resources and people, conflicts ranging from Ethiopia to the eastern Congo, Sahel, Nigeria, Somalia, Central African Republic, Mozambique and South Sudan could have caused possibly 1 million conflict-related deaths over the past decade. And what can be done? Sadly, very little so far.
This could change if or when these warring factions obtain more advanced weapons of war, as the Houthis have with ballistic missiles and drones. While much of Africa is landlocked, it has two enormous coastlines that stretch a total of about 19,000 miles. Think what that could mean.
One of the traditional problems faced by all powers, especially the United States, is a second crisis that breaks out in the midst of reacting to the first. Despite the decision-making process in this country, a second crisis exceeds the bandwidth of even the most competent administrations. Africa could, one day, become that second crisis.
Meanwhile, trying to stabilize Gaza, reverse Russia’s aggression in Ukraine while attempting to negotiate arms control agreements with Moscow as New START expires, and dealing with China are each very tough problems. And a shutdown government does not make this any easier.
Harlan Ullman is UPI’s Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist; senior adviser at Washington’s Atlantic Council, chairman of a private company, and principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. His next book, co-written with Field Marshal The Lord David Richards, former U.K. chief of defense and due out next year, is Who Thinks Best Wins: Preventing Strategic Catastrophe. The writer can be reached on X @harlankullman.
