1 of 4 | Israeli Defense Forces infantry soldiers on Merkava tanks stand alongside D-9 armored bulldozers in a staging area in southern Israel on Monday near the border with the Gaza Strip. Photo by Jim Hollander/UPI | License Photo
Gen. William Tecumseh Sherman correctly observed “war is hell.” What is happening in Gaza and Israel is that and will only get worse. It is “the war from hell.”
Suppose Israel orders an offensive into Gaza to eliminate or neutralize Hamas and you are selected as the general to lead it. You understand the costs, risks, difficulties and dangers of fighting in cities and urban areas. Advertisement
While Israel has had decades to assemble intelligence and information on Gaza, that proved insufficient to prevent Hamas from carrying out its massive attacks.
The size, number and capability of Hamas fighters are at best estimates. Hamas will mingle among the some 2 million residents packed into Gaza’s 140 square miles. Many or most Gazans dislike and do not support that organization. But little love is lost over Israel.
Gaza is the world’s largest IED — improvised explosive device. Hundreds of thousands of mines, booby traps and other obstacles await your offensive. Some speculate that this is a purposeful trap set by Hamas for Israel. Media coverage will be round the clock and intensive. Hamas gets a vote in the propaganda war. Advertisement
Rules of engagement will conform to the laws of war. But Hamas’ strategy will be to provoke Israeli overreactions. The obscene atrocities committed by Hamas have created the understandable human reaction of revenge. That may be difficult to contain if hostages or Israeli Defense Force soldiers who may be captured are tortured or executed in plain view.
The possibility of Hezbollah opening a second front in the Golan Heights in Israel’s north means that forces available to you may be limited. When the fighting ends or is reduced, the long-term problem of occupation may prove even more daunting than the war itself. Israel would have to assume responsibility for all of Gaza.
Suppose you are Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Despite forming a coalition government, you are in political trouble. Your future leadership is no longer certain. The controversy over the judiciary has been overtaken by the shock of Hamas’ surprise attack and your culpability in not foiling it.
Having ordered the offense, you must consider the prospect of a wider war. Hezbollah could attack. Would you launch a pre-emptive strike to prevent that? Iran could intervene by sending “volunteers” to Gaza. Then what?
The offensive in Gaza will likely grow bloodier and more costly. What is your response? When the fighting ends or subsides, how will you cope with an occupation of Gaza or other post-war options? Advertisement
Last, suppose you are U.S. President Joe Biden. You have made one of the strongest statements of any president supporting Israel. But regarding support, the war in Ukraine will affect what material is available for Israel. And, as in Ukraine, will Israel be unconstrained in this war, in essence given a blank check?
As the bloodshed increases, public opinion outside America will grow hostile to Israel. How will America counter that?
Escalation and expansion of the war is possible if Hezbollah, Syria or Iran intervenes. Further, you have ordered the USS Ford carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean as a deterrent. But potential adversaries, including Hamas, are aware of how Ukraine has driven the Russian navy out of its base in Crimea with drones and missiles.
Could a missile, an unmanned air, underwater drone or suicide bomber responsible for disabling the USS Cole in 2000 be targeted against the battle group? Even if the attack failed, what might be your responses? Or what if the attack succeeded in damaging the USS Ford or its escorts?
Further, what happens if the war escalates? If the House of Representatives is incapable of selecting a speaker, Congress cannot pass any legislation to support Israel, including a resolution to authorize the use of force beyond the 60 days permitted under the War Powers Act if that is needed. Make no mistake: That will not be ignored by America’s enemies and Hamas. Advertisement
What else could go wrong? A great deal. Perhaps Israel will be able to conduct this offensive with minimal casualties and levels of destruction. But perhaps it will not.
Unlike the first Yom Kippur War in 1973, Egypt’s President Anwar Sadat had a strategy to win by losing the battle. That ultimately led to a return of the Sinai captured in 1967 by Israel and peace between the two states.
Hamas is a Nihilist organization intending to destroy Israel and the Jewish state. Unlike Sadat, Hamas has no rational exit strategy. Biden and Netanyahu must understand that and prepare for this reality: The conflict in Gaza is indeed the war from hell.
Harlan Ullman is UPI’s Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist, a senior adviser at Washington’s Atlantic Council, the prime author of “shock and awe” and author of “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large.” Follow him @harlankullman. The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.
Scenes from war: Fighting, destruction in Israel and Gaza
Palestinians rescue an injured woman following an Israeli military strike in the southern Gaza Strip on October 17, 2023. Photo by Ismael Mohamad/UPI | License Photo
