Can any nation survive a government in total chaos and immobilized by potentially maximum disruption? File Photo by Jemal Countess/UPI | License Photo
President-elect Donald Trump has promised to bring disruptive change to government. Most of his recent appointees have been chosen for that purpose. And Congress is not immune if Trump is able to persuade both houses to grant him recess appointments. This would neuter the Senate and its advice and consent authority.
Whether or not all of Trump’s appointees take office, suppose each department is given orders “to clean house and weed out ‘the deep state.'” Disruption across the federal government will become the new normal. This raises a crucial question: can any nation survive a government in total chaos and immobilized by potentially maximum disruption? Advertisement
Joseph Stalin’s collectivization in the former Soviet Union and Mao Zedong’s cultural revolution in China are classic examples of destructive disruption. While some might dispute this thesis, if Trump’s disruptive aims are implemented, several outcomes are predictable. First, anyone seeking the political center will be roadkill, crushed by the MAGA right pursuing the president’s agenda and the Democratic left opposing it. Second, crucial legislation enabling government to function, such as passing budgets and establishing debt ceilings, will be stymied. Third, both sides will employ all means, fair or foul, to block the other. Fourth, the consequences will extend well beyond the nation’s borders. Advertisement
The result will be chaos as the federal government is left unable to govern and provide basic services. Start with the non-governmental Department of Government Efficiency, headed by the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, and the world’s fastest talker, Vivek Ramaswamy. Conflict of interests aside, there is no way that a promised $2 trillion can be cut from a $6.7 trillion annual federal budget in the short term.
Non-discretionary or legally mandatory funding, including interest payments on the national debt, make up about 75% of the federal budget. Defense is another 13%, and the incoming administration has signaled its intent to increase it. This leaves about 10%, or $700 billion in discretionary spending, from which to cut $2 trillion if no cuts are made to the other 90% of the budget.
Unless Musk and Ramaswamy defy mathematics, no creative accounting can reconcile these budget realities. This leaves mandatory spending as the source for cuts. But will Trump risk public wrath by reducing Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid benefits?
In addition, this disruption cannot be isolated from financial markets and the ensuing turmoil created by uncertainty over fiscal and monetary policy. It is unclear if the Trump team is aware of the potential chaos that could be created or of the track record of prior attempts to limit spending. As a member of the Grace and Packard Commissions of the Reagan administration and a commentator on Al Gore’s Reinventing Government and the Bowles-Simpson Commission, despite the best intentions, none of these succeeded. What evidence is there that Musk and Ramaswamy will do better? Indeed, the possible downsides have not been considered yet. Advertisement
Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence and Kristi Noem as head of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) can be challenged for lack of experience and competence. Yet, as DHS is tasked with the largest deportation of undocumented immigrants in history, the legal, logistical and economic reverberations have been ignored. Indeed, as farmers warn, one result could be a monumental lack of workers, causing a potential crisis in the food industry.
Defense is another case of impending chaos. Pete Hegseth, the nominee for United States Secretary of Defense, has vowed to fire officers who took part in the Afghanistan evacuation, those who are too “woke,” and remove women from combat. This will cause a counter-cultural revolution in defense. Recall how long it took to move from barring LGBT service members to Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, to no restrictions.
It is essential to consider how the morale and esprit of the Pentagon will be affected. First, women will not have a fond reaction to being returned to second class citizenship or how these warfighting billets will be filled, given shortfalls in recruiting and retaining service personnel. Second, how does one fire officers for carrying out legal orders and authority? Third, how will the military respond to a MAGA culture being imposed on it by the Trump administration? Advertisement
No doubt, the U.S. government needs an overhaul. However, imposing simultaneous disruption across all or most of government has only one outcome. This is akin to modifying the engines, wings, flight controls, avionics and seating in an airplane flying at 600 mph at 25,000 feet. “Buckle up” does not even come close to warning of what might lie ahead.
Harlan Ullman is UPI’s Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist, a senior advisor at Washington’s Atlantic Council, the prime author of “shock and awe” and author of “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large.” Follow him @harlankullman. The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.
