One of the greatest pities of this election cycle is there is no Republican version of George Clooney, who urged Biden to withdraw from the presidency. Would any Republican have the courage to do the same to Trump? File Photo by Bonnie Cash/UPI | License Photo
One of the greatest pities of this election cycle is that there is no Republican version of George Clooney, the actor and Democratic fundraiser. In July, Clooney wrote a respectful yet powerful letter urging President Joe Biden to withdraw from the presidency. Would any Republican have the courage to make the same plea to former President Donald Trump?
The answer, of course, is hell no. The idea would be instantly rejected as absurd. But despite the chaos and political nightmare such a decision would provoke, consider why the prospect might not be as ludicrous as it seems if Republicans want to win the presidential election in 2024. Advertisement
Following this week’s Democratic National Convention, suppose Democratic nominee for president Kamala Harris’ honeymoon did not only persist, but swelled into a tsunami of support. Hundreds of millions of dollars filled her war chest. Tens of thousands volunteered for the Kamala Korps, creating a large army dedicated to winning the election. And all polls projected a Democratic landslide in both the popular and Electoral College votes. Advertisement
Now imagine New York judge Juan Merchan was days away from sentencing former president Trump in the Stormy Daniels “hush money” case. When asked, the judge inferred no options were off the table. The media immediately reported jail time was likely.
Furthermore, the Justice Department succeeded in its appeal of Judge Aileen Cannon’s dismissal of the Mar-a-Lago classified material case by declaring the special counsel unconstitutional. The ruling was reversed. A guilty finding seemed certain in the pending trial.
The spillover of the Harris phenomenon affected many Congressional races. A Blue Wave victory was projected in both Houses of Congress. Ladbrokes, a major London betting shop, put the odds of Trump winning at 100 to 1.
In this scenario, Trump being Trump was in denial. He remained convinced he would win the election claiming the polls were “rigged” and thus wrong. Trump accused the media of using “fake news” to discredit, tipping the election to Harris.
Disregarding the advice of serious Republicans, Trump refused to revise his campaign strategy from attacking Harris over her past record to one that explained how a second Trump administration would “make America great again.” Trump’s anger-based tirades and glowering presence at rallies cost him heavily in the public relations war when contrasted with Harris’ optimism, enthusiasm and energy. Advertisement
This would be a battle of sound bites with dueling messages. Like the successful “Morning in America” and “Hope and Change” that won for Ronald Reagan in 1984 and Barack Obama in 2008, respectively, Trump’s negativism was one of “malaise” and “carnage” that failed in 2020, 2022 and seemed destined to lose in 2024. Still, Trump remained defiant, doubling down with ad hominem attacks
In reality… if Trump was to quit the race, is it possible to replace a presidential candidate so close to the election? And who might be the replacement? Republican nominee for vice president JD Vance is improbable at best. Governors such as New Hampshire’s Chris Sununu, Virginia’s Glenn Youngkin, and Florida’s Ron DeSantis are attractive options. Maryland Governor and Senate candidate Larry Hogan reflects what was once the moderate wing of the Republican Party. And there are others.
One of the most profound consequences of a Trump withdrawal could catalyze “traditional Republicans” into launching a political coup that would return the TOP –Trump’s Own Party — back to the old GOP — the Grand Old Party. Exorcising, purging and banishing the MAGA elements forever from Republicanism would be one principal aim. Advertisement
It is fantasy to believe Trump would alter his course even when confronted with near absolute certainty he and his party were facing all but certain defeat. The prospect of Trump leaving is probably more remote than, at the beginning of the year, believing Biden would drop out.
And if Trump lost decisively on Nov. 5th, would he accept the results? Or would he repeat his 2020 allegations of fraud and an avalanche of lawsuits to reverse the election, all of which failed? And would greater violence be inevitable, exceeding the Jan. 6th, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol?
A large majority of Americans did not approve of choosing Harris or Trump. Elsewhere, I have described that whomever is elected president, the nation will face a catastrophe under Trump and disaster under Harris. Why?
If the most important personal criteria for ensuring a successful presidency are character, judgment and experience, how do Harris and Trump measure up? Under any objective standards, the findings are not reassuring. Indeed, they are far worse.
So what can be done? The answers are bleak. Trump will not change. Biden is history. No matter the hype, Harris is untested. And hope is not a plan. Advertisement
One wonders what betting line Ladbrokes will offer on America’s future prospects.
Harlan Ullman is UPI’s Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist, a senior advisor at Washington’s Atlantic Council, the prime author of “shock and awe” and author of “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large.” Follow him @harlankullman. The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.
