1 of 2 | President Joe Biden (pictured) and former president Donald Trump will take part in the first debate of the 2024 presidential election Thursday. File Photo by Ken Cedeno/UPI | License Photo
Thursday evening could mark a spectacle or even a farce masquerading as a potentially crucial turning point in the 2024 presidential election. Will this be a decisive moment in the campaign, with Joe Biden or Donald Trump throwing a fatal knockout punch that obliterates the opponent? Will this be decisive because one of the candidates self-immolates before a huge television audience? Or will the debate be a draw and have little or no effect on the election?
Of course, an unexpected event could intervene. Suppose the Supreme Court releases its ruling on presidential immunity before the debate? Will that finding dominate the debate, as other important topics may simply be crowded out no matter what the high court decides? Or suppose conflict between Israel and Hezbollah breaks out; the Houthis successfully attack a U.S. warship; or some surprise revelation about one or both candidates upsets the debate? Advertisement Advertisement
While the electorate appears to be almost equally divided in supporting or opposing the candidates, a majority of Americans would prefer an alternative choice. Barring an extraordinary event — and the debate might change that — Biden and Trump will be representing their parties and one will become the next president. The obvious question of how an aging 81 year old could be facing a 78 year old with his own quirks and eccentricities remains unanswered for the time being. But when the incumbent declares his opponent a “dictator” and the opponent calls his foe “the worst president in history,” this is not a normal time — quite the opposite.
Pouring gallons of high octane political gasoline on this election, both parties are convinced that, if elected, the other will destroy democracy. It would be hard to identify other times in American history since 1860 that the nation was so divided and the public and private discourse was so coarse, angry and pessimistic. Will this debate simply reinforce these centrifugal forces and make matters worse?
Regardless of how Biden and Trump may do and unless one of them collapses or has a physical meltdown, if an objective evaluation were possible, the regular and social media will distort the outcome to favor their candidate. Even if Biden was articulate and in control, he will be crucified for looking old and for stumbling over a word or phrase. Should Trump exercise unprecedented self-control, his hair, long tie or some other peculiarity will attract disparaging commentary. Advertisement
Substance will be less important than how both candidates handle themselves or how they look. In one presidential debate, President George H. W. Bush was attacked for looking at his wristwatch as if he were bored. Recollections of the first Kennedy-Nixon 1960 debate are how JFK won the visual side and Nixon the audio. Realistically, style counts more in the age of television and the Internet.
Understanding how America was given the choice of Biden or Trump for a second time will have no impact on the election. It might however make 2028 an opportunity for new and more centrist faces to break through, perhaps bringing youth tonic to the geriatric Democratic Party and transforming the Republican Party back to being the GOP from the TOP — Trump’s Own Party. And perhaps it might reduce the hostility, animosity and even hatred from American politics — cynics might say wishful thinking.
In the election, loss can bring an opportunity: a new front runner. While youth is not the only criterion, younger leaders are vital. If Trump loses and sees 2028 as three times lucky, Republicans may be stuck with an 82-year-old candidate in four years.
Biden and Trump became presidents because of the nature of the system. Biden’s long government service and eight years as vice president made him the natural candidate, though 2016 would have been a better moment. As vice president, Kamala Harris could expect to pick up the torch if Biden is re-elected. But as Biden was beaten by Hillary, Harris may become political history in 2028. Advertisement
Trump became president through a series of unpredictable and extraordinary events. His best preparation was through eleven years on The Apprentice and The Celebrity Apprentice TV successes. He became a household name. The give and take on camera provided unmatched training in dealing with and communicating with audiences.
Trump’s oversized personality and ego further attracted public notice. And his bravado, bluff and Teflon ability to avoid accountability and truth were of immense aid in a cynical age. Another Trump-like figure is not on the scene. And Joe cannot run again. Still, this may be the debate to or from hell.
Harlan Ullman is UPI’s Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist, a senior adviser at Washington’s Atlantic Council, the prime author of “shock and awe” and author of “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large.” Follow him @harlankullman. The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.
