Donald Trump speaks from the Palm Beach Convention Center at the Trump Campaign Election Night Watch Party in West Palm Beach, Fla., on Wednesday. Photo by Joe Marino/UPI | License Photo
Donald Trump has won a decisive victory in the 2024 presidential election. Simply put, why? This question will dominate discussion and provoke answers for decades to come.
After all, no prior presidential candidate in American history had such potentially disqualifying baggage as Trump. Would Americans re-elect someone who was twice impeached as president; is a convicted felon and a “rapist,” as deemed by a judge and jury in a civil case in which he was ordered to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in liability awards; a person accused of attempting to overturn the 2020 elections; a known liar and serial adulterer; and a president who added $6.4 trillion to the national debt? Advertisement
Yet, America elected Trump. Some argue it was the widespread public anger and fury with President Joe Biden and his administration over immigration, cost of living, and the president’s general unpopularity that produced a decisive Republican electoral victory, rather than Trump. That the public being enraged would account for voters dismissing Trump’s sordid history. Advertisement
These factors are important but should not discount the other reasons that produced Trump’s success and explain why in over 90% of the approximately 175,000 voting precincts scattered across the fifty states, Trump increased his share of the vote. And why, at this writing, that Trump is on the way to winning the popular vote.
First, Biden removed himself as a candidate because of fundamental questions about his mental fitness to hold office. This meant Democratic presidential nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris had the impossible task of organizing a campaign, setting an agenda, raising huge amounts of money, and selecting a vice president with only a dozen weeks until the election. Given Biden’s low performance ratings and criticism over inflation and the flow of undocumented immigrants into the United States, Harris was very much tied to the administration’s failures and could not distance herself sufficiently to make a difference, as happened with Hubert Humphrey in 1968 with President Lyndon B. Johnson’s Vietnam debacle.
Second, because Harris had virtually no preparatory time or experience in winning a nomination, a combination of her misuse of language, an initial absence of specificity in outlining her policy proposals, and her inability to refute charges of “flip flopping” over virtually every issue, were to Trump’s advantage. Advertisement
Third, the public tired of the overwhelming Democratic assault on Trump as a new Adolf Hitler and a fascist. Most Americans would be hard pressed to define fascism or even understand its history. So overplaying this hand helped Trump.
Ironically, and with implicit linkage to Hitler, the German dictator rose to power because in post-World War I Germany, its citizens were desperate, facing the most dire economic and political conditions. With no options, desperate Germans turned to Hitler. This was catastrophic.
Americans are not that desperate. However, 70 to 75% of Americans believe the country is on the wrong course, which led Trump to become the de facto choice and add to his dominant win.
Fourth, Trump challenged Americans to answer whether they are better or worse off in 2024 than in 2020 when he was in office. Democrats were incapable of responding to this question, even though in 2020 the nation was in the grips of the COVID-19 pandemic and in recession.
Fifth, and this may be a lesser-known reason, is the issue of transgender rights. 80 to 85% of Americans oppose trans girls being allowed to play girls sports. And few Americans understand why children should be allowed to undergo a transition at a young age. This hurt Harris. Advertisement
What next? The election seemed to happen, if not effortlessly, without any serious problems that will challenge its legitimacy. This leaves Democrats with few options.
The Democratic party could accept the results and conduct a major autopsy of why it lost to realign itself. It could do nothing and remain in the minority. Or, extreme elements could resort to violence, as followed the murder of George Floyd in 2020 and the emergence of Black Lives Matter.
Another tragic consequence of the election was the introduction of excessive coarseness and vulgarity in the political debate by Trump. This rejection of civility risks becoming irreversible.
Two crucial questions may define the future of America’s democracy. First, will Trump act as the president for all Americans and reject his often fiery, partisan and provocative rhetoric? Second, will the far left refrain from excessive violence in protests? The answers may be forthcoming far sooner than anyone suspects.
Harlan Ullman is UPI’s Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist, a senior advisor at Washington’s Atlantic Council, the prime author of “shock and awe” and author of “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large.” Follow him @harlankullman. The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author. Advertisement
